In the latest version Technology report and advanced smartphone screen chargingDSCC reveals more details and insights into the projected 13% year-over-year unit decline and 5% year-over-year panel revenue decline for OLED smartphones. OLED smartphone panel revenue is expected to drop to $31 billion from $33 billion in 2021.
As a result of a persistent macroeconomic environment, persistent supply chain issues and weak consumer demand, major smartphone brands continue to reduce their purchases of OLED smartphone panels for 2022 by multiples.
For 2022, DSCC expects shipments of OLED smartphone panels to decline 13% compared to last year, to 554 million. Flexible OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase by 6% year over year and make up 65% of unit share compared to 54% in 2021. Solid OLED smartphone panels are expected to decrease by 38% compared to last year and make up 32% unit share , down from 45% in 2021. Solid OLED smartphone panels continue to decline rapidly due to the pricing of flexible OLED smartphone panels by many Chinese panel suppliers that are very close to rigid OLED smartphone panels and many brands significantly reduce their demand against 2021. In 2021, for some Chinese panel suppliers, flexible OLED panel ASPs for smartphones were more than double the ASPs for solid OLED panels. This is no longer the case. Separately, foldable OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 77% year over year versus 3% unit share, up from 2% in 2021.
For 2023, DSCC expects OLED smartphone panels to increase by 9% year over year and flexible OLED smartphone panels to increase by 14% over last year for a unit share of 68%, followed by foldable/rollable OLED smartphone panels which have increased by 34% compared to last year. to 4% unit share and solid OLED smartphone panels are down 3% from last year versus 28% unit share. In 2023, for flexible OLED smartphone panels, we expect all brands to increase panel purchases in single and double ratios as a result of 17% lower price for flexible OLED panel ASPs than last year and increased flexibility for OLED delivered online. We expect solid OLED smartphone panels to continue to decline by 3% year over year as ASPs for flexible OLED smartphone panels continue to decline, and many brands are completely exiting the solid OLED smartphone category, and are using increased solid OLED capacity for IT applications.
For 2022, on the basis of smartphone panel revenue, DSCC expects solid OLED smartphone panel revenue to decline 39% year-on-year by 13%, down from 20% in 2021. Flexible AMOLED smartphone panel revenue is expected to remain flat. And it increases to a 79% revenue share in a smaller market. Foldable AMOLED smartphone panel revenue is expected to increase 55% from last year with a profit share of 8%, versus 5% in 2021.
For 2023, DSCC expects smartphone panel revenue to decline 4% year over year, with flexible smartphone panel revenue to fall 4% y/y on unit growth of 9% y/y, followed by 20% y/y increase For foldable / foldable smartphones. Panel earnings on unit growth of 34% year over year. For rigid OLED smartphone panel revenue, we expect a 14% YoY decline on a 3% YoY decline per unit.
Annual Smartphone OLED Panels by Substrate, 2020-2023
In the case of panel revenue share for 2022 by panel supplier, DSCC expects SDC to remain the dominant panel supplier with 67% revenue share, followed by LGD at 10%, BOE at 8% and Visionox at 3%. In 2023, based on projected panel shipment volume, we expect SDC to have a 57% share of panel revenue, followed by BOE at 12%, LGD at 11%, and Visionox and China Star at 3%. The increase in the BOE’s share comes as a result of an expected increase in panel shipments from Apple, Honor, Oppo, Samsung and Vivo. For Apple, BOE currently provides flexible OLED panels for the iPhone 12, 13 and 14. The increase in LGD share comes as a result of projected increases in panel shipments from Apple. For Apple, LGD provides flexible OLED panels for the iPhone 11 Pro Max, iPhone 12, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Mini, iPhone 14, and iPhone 14 Pro Max.
OLED Smartphone Panel Annual Revenue by Panel Provider, 2020-2022
In the case of the 2022 OLED brand stake, DSCC expects Apple to own 39% of the unit share and 54% of smart device revenue, up from 29% and 41%, respectively, in 2021. We expect Samsung to own 21% of the unit share and profit share Smart devices increased by 21%, down from 22% and 22%, respectively, in 2021.
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