6/11/update below. This post was originally published on November 3
The iPhone 15 upgrades that are highly inclined are falling like fliesAnd now one of the biggest looks is sure to be missing the pieces.
Apple’s much-touted in-house 5G modem isn’t much anymore with the launch of the iPhone 15 range in 2023, and it signals a major setback for Apple’s modem division. The news emerged on the heels of comments from Apple’s modem supplier Qualcomm, in its earnings report yesterday.
picked up by BloombergQualcomm told investors it will continue to supply the “vast majority” of modem chips for Apple’s iPhone 15 range in 2023. The company said it previously expected to supply only 20% of iPhone 5G modems by this time, given Apple ambitious roadmap for their 5G modems.
Update 11/04: I can now confirm Qualcomm’s comments reported by Bloomberg, which in turn confirm that Apple’s modem ambitions have been delayed for at least another iPhone generation.
Update 11/05: The same source has now added more details to Qualcomm’s comments, claiming that the company expects to continue providing Apple with modems for iPhone models for at least the next three generations.
The source also says that Qualcomm does not expect Apple to replace Qualcomm modems in one go, and instead is introducing them in increasing proportions with each successive generation of iPhones. It is completely logical. The company has also tried this model before.
Apple was already looking to diversify its modem suppliers when it began incorporating Intel modems into the iPhones with the iPhone 11. performance problems The experience cut short, but Apple was excited enough to buy Intel’s smartphone modem division in 2019 to try out the same chips.
Since then, the lack of a commercial product has shown that competing with Qualcomm is no easy feat. However, Apple’s potential gains are twofold. First, it is gaining more control over its supply chain. Second, it can integrate internal modems early in the design process, which can lead to increased performance and battery efficiency.
As such, during the delay, I don’t see Apple giving up on its modern ambitions anytime soon.
Update 11/06: Following up on his initial report, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman has added more detail to Qualcomm’s claim that it will continue to provide the “vast majority” of iPhone 5G modems in 2023. Going forward, Gurman explains:
“Qualcomm now believes that it will supply the majority of Apple modems in 2023. In fact, the company has implied that it may do so until 2025. This means that Qualcomm will continue to have a strong revenue stream from Apple’s large iPhone volumes. It also It also indicates that Apple’s internal initiative is lagging.”
This jump to three years is related to the information my source provided yesterday. It’s also important to note that “until 2025” does not mean that Apple will take over from Qualcomm at that time. Alternatively, by 2025, Apple may be in a position to make a large percentage, perhaps the majority of iPhone modems by 2025 – but Qualcomm will still be heavily involved.
By extension, 2026 now appears to be the earliest we can expect to produce iPhone modems entirely in-house, and in order to feel the benefits of this integration. After all, even if Apple could deliver big advantages early on, the company wouldn’t be able to ship iPhones with different performance levels After the disaster of 2016so Apple modems will be in steering mode.
Needless to say, timelines can change quickly when looking so far into the future. However, I cannot cite an earlier example of Apple making such a large acquisition and having to wait so long to bring the product to market.
As it stands, buying a 2019 Intel modem division will not pay off for 6-7 years. I’m sure this was not what Apple expected at the time.
Despite working on the chip since 2020, Bloomberg revealed that Apple suffered major setbacks that caused the delay. In July, it reported that prototypes were “the hottest over the past year.”
Respected industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo went further, saying that the development of the modem “He may have failed, claiming that Apple may have to rely on Qualcomm for the foreseeable future. Last month, Jeff Bo, an analyst at Haitong International Securities, agreed, suggesting that Apple’s modem might do so. Miss iPhone was launched in 2023 and 2024.
But this is the first time we’ve heard from an Apple partner, and Qualcomm’s announcement adds significant weight to these pessimistic predictions. Such a delay would have seemed out of the question when Apple bought the Intel 5G modem business for $1 billion in 2019. Intel was already shipping modems to smartphones, and Apple used them in the iPhone 11 range.
As such, it’s hard to understand why the project is so challenging. Apple is notorious for its tight integration between components, so if I’m going to risk a guess, this is where I suspect the problems may have arisen.
On the other hand, 5G modems from Qualcomm She is so amazingAnd early leaks suggest there’s still a lot to like about Apple’s iPhone 15 plans. Included Redesigned Standard Models And the all-new iPhone 15 Ultra with Titanium structure And the Dual front cameras. USB-C is also heavily routed, But far from certain.
Either way, it looks like Apple is determined to make a splash in 2023 then Disappointing sales for iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus.
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