Needham, Massachusetts, August 31, 2022– (work wire) – According to the latest International Data Corporation (IDC) Quarterly mobile phone tracker around the world Smartphone shipments are expected to decline 6.5% to 1.27 billion units in 2022. The decline is attributed to record inflation, geopolitical tensions and other macroeconomic challenges that have significantly dampened consumer demand. As a result, the latest forecast numbers are three percentage points lower than the previous forecast. However, IDC expects the setback to be short-lived and for the market to rebound in 2023 with 5.2% year-over-year growth, and in the long-term, a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4%.
“The supply constraints that dragged the market since last year have eased and the industry has turned into a demand-constrained market. Rising inventory in channels and lower demand with no signs of immediate recovery have caused OEMs to panic and cut their orders significantly for 2022. The events of the twelve months have led We will cut 150 million units from the market for 2022 compared to our expectations in the second quarter of 2021.” Nabila BhopalDirector of Research with IDC’s Worldwide Navigation & Consumer Device Trackers. “Despite lower units, Average Selling Prices (ASP) grew 10% year-over-year in the second quarter and are expected to grow 6.3% for the full year. The premium segment ($800) has proven resilient in the face of economic turmoil. It has grown four percentage points in share to 16% of the total smartphone market and will continue to grow. This includes foldable devices, which is the fastest growing segment today and is expected to increase by 70% year-on-year in 2022 to reach 13.5 million units shipped.”
From a regional standpoint, the economic crisis has hit emerging markets, with the majority of shipment volume coming from devices under $400, which are much tougher. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is expected to decline by 17.4% in 2022 and Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China) (APeJC), which was previously expected to grow by 3.0%, is now expected to decline by 4.5% in year 2022. However, the largest volume decline comes from China, which is now expected to fall by 12.5% or roughly 41 million units, contributing roughly half of the overall decline this year. In contrast, developed markets such as North America (USA and Canada) and Western Europe are expected to do much better in 2022. The US will be relatively flat at 0.3% growth per year while the Canadian market will perform slightly better with 3.2% growth and only a declining A slight 0.7% for Western Europe.
Global shipments of 5G devices are expected to grow 23.6% year-on-year in 2022 and account for more than half (54%) of all shipments with 688 million devices and an ASP of $616. In the long term, 5G is expected to reach a volumetric share of 79% in 2026 with an ASP of $444. In contrast, the price of 4G ASP will reach $176 in 2022, dropping to $106 by the end of the forecast period. As a result, the total price of the ASP smartphone will drop from $413 in 2022 to $373 in 2026.
“The flexibility of the top tier of the market was a testament to the success of iOS, which has not seen a drop in shipping all year since 2019,” he said. Anthony ScarcellaDirector of Research with IDC’s Worldwide Navigation & Consumer Device Trackers. “Despite the general decline in the market, iOS shipments will remain positive in 2022 with 0.5% growth. Additionally, the operating system will display slight growth throughout the forecast period with ASPs hovering above $950. As for the world’s most popular operating system, Android, 2022 will see a decline of close to 8% but will rebound well in 6.2% growth in 2023. Unfortunately, the low market did not perform well in 2022, with shipments of Android devices under $200 declining by 22.4% in the quarter 1 and 16.5% in Q2. On a positive note, devices over $1,000 posted a growth of 35.2%, thanks to the premium flagship and the recent success of foldable devices in the market.”
Graphic showing IDC’s forecast for worldwide smartphones 2020-2026, including shipments by air front generation (3G, 4G and 5G) and average selling price for 4G and 5G phones, available by view This press release is on IDC.com.
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